Tropical Storm Erika is churning its way through the Caribbean, where it’s likely to weaken somewhat as it crosses the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and then Cuba, after which it will begin to encounter warmer sea surface temperatures (SST) conducive to strengthening.

Although Floridians are already wisely preparing for Erika’s arrival and wet weather, the storm’s main target is more likely to be the Gulf coast states of Louisiana and Texas.

The potential for heavy precipitation in the Gulf from a tropical disturbance was set at the summer ingress of June 21, 2015. In that chart, a Mercury-Neptune square aspects the chart angles (longitude and latitude), always a strong indication of cloudy, wet weather. That aspect, which forewarns of hurricanes, tornadoes, and abundant precipitation, will be activated by the Full Moon of August 29, which will be in effect for the following seven days.

Erika could easily get a fresh boost of energy in the warmer Gulf waters as it heads for the Gulf coast states. Look for its arrival September 1-2.